El Niño 2026–27: What It Means for Next Year's Peach, Mandarin and Pineapple Harvests

This El Niño is shaping up to be one of the strongest on record, and it is expected to last into spring 2027. Here is what the latest forecasts mean for next year's peach, mandarin and pineapple harvests, and how fruit processors can prepare.

A historic event is underway

According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University, the Niño 3.4 index reached +3.0°C in mid-September, and all 22 forecast models expect El Niño to stay "very strong" through winter 2026–27. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. IRI expects El Niño conditions to persist into spring 2027, so its effects will shape next year's fruit seasons.

Mandarin: Peru already feels the heat

According to ProCitrus, Peru's citrus association, mandarin exports through early July fell 43%, mainly because El Niño delayed the fruit's color change, although internal quality was not affected. Peru's official El Niño commission, ENFEN, raised the probability of an extraordinary coastal El Niño between September 2026 and January 2027 to at least 62%, and expects it may continue until April 2027, with above-normal coastal rain.

ProCitrus warns this could affect flowering, fruit size and productivity in 2027, and will assess flowering in October–November, which will shape 2027 production.

Pineapple: drought risk in Southeast Asia

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) identifies agricultural drought risk from India through Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. In Thailand, Krungthai COMPASS forecasts El Niño damage to agriculture of over THB 62 billion from late 2026 to mid-2027, mainly through extreme heat and drought. Processors should plan for possible lower yields and more variable fruit quality in early 2027.

Peach: compressed harvest windows

Agricultural climate experts cited by HortiDaily warn that a warm, humid spring can speed up peach maturity and compress harvest windows. For central Chile, bioclimatologists warn of heavy spring rain, possible hail during bloom and fruit set, and rain near harvest in November–December. A shorter window means more fruit must be processed in less time.

What processors can do now

A strong El Niño does not guarantee a repeat of past losses, but it raises the probability of disruption. For fruit cup and canning plants, three steps make sense:

• Plan for shorter, peakier seasons. Check that line capacity can handle compressed harvests.
• Reduce fruit loss. When raw fruit is scarce and expensive, accurate automatic filling saves money on every cup.
• Reduce labor dependence. Automation keeps output steady when seasons shift and labor is hard to schedule.

Lion Packing Systems helps fruit processors in China, Thailand, Mexico and Peru prepare for changing seasons with turnkey lines and professional consulting.

Forecast sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center; IRI, Columbia University; ENFEN (Peru); ProCitrus (Peru); FAO; Krungthai COMPASS (Thailand); HortiDaily. Forecasts as of September 2026 and subject to change.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center – ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
• IRI, Columbia University – ENSO forecast, September 2026
• FreshPlaza – Peruvian mandarin exports fall by 43% due to El Niño
• FreshPlaza – Peru exported 20% less citrus in the first 24 weeks of the year
• Infobae – ENFEN raises probability of an extraordinary coastal El Niño to 62%
• RPP – ENFEN coastal El Niño outlook
• FAO – El Niño is coming: where the risks to agriculture are highest
• The Nation Thailand – El Niño could cost Thai agriculture THB62 billion
• HortiDaily – What El Niño means for 2026 fruit imports